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  3Q22 results miss our expectations
  Jidong Cement (Jidong) announced its 1-3Q22 results: Revenue grew 4.4% YoY to Rmb27.35bn, and attributable net profit fell 10.2% YoY to Rmb1.63bn. In 3Q22, revenue expanded 6.3% YoY to Rmb10.51bn, and attributable net profit declined 16.8% YoY to Rmb493mn. The firm’s 3Q22 results missed our expectations mainly due to a larger-than-expected decline in per-tonne earnings.
  1) Sales volume fell slightly YoY in 3Q22. Data from dcement.com shows output of cement in northern China declined 5% YoY to 62.86mnt. We believe Jidong’s output and sales of cement may also come under pressure in 3Q22. However, we think the firm reported a narrower decline in sales volume than the industry average given its high market share and competitive advantage in the northern China market. 2) GM declined notably YoY and QoQ. In 3Q22, the firm’s blended gross margin (GM) slid 5.9ppt YoY (or 6.7ppt QoQ) to around 16.8%. According to dcement.com, the average selling price (ASP) of cement clinker in northern China fell 12% QoQ (but rose 7% YoY), showing a notable decrease. We believe the firm’s GM shrank YoY mainly because rising coal prices pushed up Jidong’s per-tonne cost, putting its per-tonne earnings under pressure. Meanwhile, we mainly attribute the QoQ decrease in GM to the significant decline in the ASP of Jidong’s cement products amid intensified competition in the industry in 3Q22. 3) Per-tonne expense largely flat YoY and QoQ. Based on our assumption that the firm’s sales volume fell slightly YoY in 3Q22, we estimate the firm’s per-tonne expense remained largely flat YoY and QoQ at Rmb47, indicating effective expense control. 4) Operating cash flow under pressure. Jidong’s operating cash flow fell 50.9% YoY to Rmb2.34bn in 1-3Q22. Its operating cash flow decreased slightly YoY to Rmb1.53bn in 3Q22.
  Trends to watch
  Earnings to remain under pressure in 4Q22; Jidong to cement leadership in northern China amid industry-wide demand recovery in 2023. We believe the firm’s earnings will likely remain under pressure from falling demand from construction projects and rising coal costs amid a slack season in 4Q22. However, we think cement manufacturers have found out better ways (e.g., longer period of cement production restriction, integrated development of aggregate and ready-mix concrete, and regional market integration) to cope with the contraction in demand. As a leading cement manufacturer, we expect Jidong to maintain robust operations and benefit from a rebound in cement demand backed by its advantages in market share and operational efficiency in 2023. In the medium and long term, we believe Jidong may continue to cement its leading position in the northern China market amid higher energy efficiency standards and carbon trading policy tailwinds.
  Financials and valuation
  We lower our attributable net profit forecast 44.6% to Rmb1.4bn for 2022 and 44.3% to Rmb1.67bn for 2023 to reflect our lower sales volume and per-tonne earnings assumptions. The stock is trading at 14.8x 2022e and 12.4x 2023e P/E. Considering cement demand may recover in 2023, we cut our TP 15.9% to Rmb9.9, implying 18.8x 2022e and 15.8x 2023e P/E with 27% upside.
  Risks
  Sharper-than-expected decline in cement demand and/or increases in coal prices.
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  1. 三分情,七分泪〆
    三分情,七分泪〆
    (2022-11-28 00:19:02) 1#
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